Public-Private Partnership Modeling with Excel and Palisade @RISK 5.0 - In Association with Torys LLP
Part 1 – PPP vs. Project Finance
- The concession
- Matching concession length and life-cycle
- RFP and winning criteria
- Canadian Government Programs
- Partnerships BC
- Ontario Infrastructure Projects
- Alberta’s Ministry of Infrastructure and Transportation
- Agence des partenariats public-privé du Québec
- Corporate finance is a balance sheet exercise
- PPP is a cash flow exercise
- "Cash is King"
- The Time Value of Money ("TVM")
- "A Dollar Today Is Worth More Than A Dollar Tomorrow"
Part 2 - The Role of the Model & Common Rules
- Reflection of the Project & Financing Documents
- An easily manipulated model to reflect changes in the deal
- A tool to support negotiations
- "Always negotiate off the model and never model off the negotiations"
- Run different cases and scenarios
- Essential model layouts and rules
Part 3 - The Risk Matrix
- What is Risk?
- A statistical perspective
- A level view of risk
- Risk is not pejorative
- What is Reward?
- Does the reward adequately compensate the risk?
- "Beauty is in the Eye of the Beholder"
- How do we approach risk from a modeling standpoint?
- Matching risk mitigation with documents and cash flow
Part 4 - Introduction of a Project for Modeling
- The project structure and the model
- Project Documents are financed, not models
- Appropriately representing document structures in the financial model
- Nominal versus real models
- Real models underestimate real cash taxes
Part 5 - The Project Documents and SPV Structuring
- Design-Build
- Design-Build-Operate
- Design-Build-Finance-Operate
- Design-Build-Finance-Operate-Maintain
- Design-Own-Operate-Transfer
Part 6 - The Assumption Page
Part 7 – Revenue: Availability versus Service and the Unitary Payment
- Milestone payments
- Performance based operating payments
- Other tariff structures
Part 8 – Operations
- Life-cycle costing
- Correctly matching units
- Crossing out appropriate units and tariffs to arrive at cash
- Fixed and variable costs
- Matching cost drivers to revenue drivers
- Escalation factors
- "How many angels are on a pinhead?"
- Operational taxes
- Accurately assigning appropriate taxes
Part 9 – Construction
- Grant payments during construction
Part 10 – Insurance
- Construction insurance
- Operational insurance
Part 11 – Taxes
- Withholding taxes
- 5/25 exemptions
- Income Tax Act
- Leases
Part 12 – Depreciation
- Asset ownership and depreciation issues
- Different modeling techniques
- The "Trapped Cash" dilemma
- Thin-Capitalization issues
Part 13 - Financing(s)
- Bank Loans
- Bonds
- Convertibility
- Quasi-equity
- Equity
- Matching currencies
- Purchasing Power Parity
- Covered Interest Parity
- Security packages
- Reserve accounts
- Maintenance accounts
- Model switches and masks
Part 14 - The Income Statement
- Model information flow
Part 15 - The Balance Sheet
- Balance checks
Part 16 - The Statement of Cash Flows
- Waterfall payments
- Distributing capital and funds correctly
- Trapped cash issues
Part 17 - Equity Returns
- Net Present Value (“DSCR”)
- Internal Rate of Return (“IRR”)
Part 18 - Loan Values
- Debt Service Coverage Ratio (“DSCR”)
- Average Loan Life
- Other covenants
Part 19 - “Pricing the Deal” and Scenario Analysis
- Fundamental Macro Analysis
- Review potential risks in the equity model and project documents
- The equity's view
- Lenders' view
- The other participants' views
- Refining role of a risk matrix and reflection in the model
Part 20 - Documenting Changes to the Model
- Negotiating changes
- Due diligence changes
- Sensitivity tables
Part 21 - Analysis of Liquidated Damages (“LD”), Asset Renewal & Lifecycle Reserves
- Construction related damages
- Time
- Cost over-runs
- Outputs and inputs
- Operational related damages
Part 22 – Monte Carlo Simulation using Palisade @RISK 5.0
- Identifying important sensitivities
- Choosing distribution
- Using rank order of sensitivities to negotiate or hedge contracts
- Analyzing outputs
- Using Palisade @RISK output and graphs for presentation purposes
Available Dates
- No available dates.